May 09 2010
Week 14 2010
( Please see Kangaroo Money’s Disclaimer published as Disclaimer 2010 on 01/03/2010 . )
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In the Business World, timing is everything. Good timing, bad timing, up timing, off timing, some timing, and my personal favorite, two timing. The entire premise of the success of a process change, of a product launch, of a company buy out or a well placed comment to drive a moment home, has timing as the foundation for that particular success…or for it’s failure. Timing as the key factor for success is not isolated to business when it comes to being a critical item. An example? Earlier in January 2010, many rumors made the rounds that President Obama would have his first formal State of the Union speech on the same night as the final season premiere episode of the well loved television show “Lost”. So many rumors were made in the media and on the world wide web in fact, that White House spokesman Robert Gibbs felt it necessary during the January 8th, 2010 press conference to insure that the State of the Union speech would NOT take place on the same night as that episode of ”Lost”. As we said, timing is everything.
World wide business efforts over the last 18 to 24 months have been focused on timing as the result of the problems that the nation, and indeed the world, have in their lap today. When people were buying houses in 2005 and 2006, the banking world was screaming that the time was right, that the market had never been better, that there was nothing safer than buying a house now, Now, NOW!!!. To an extent, the banks were right. It was the right time for the banks to lend money and sell houses in 2005 and 2006. Banks did nothing to discourage people from making one of the biggest mistakes that all people make sometime in life — too much of a good thing can be a bad thing in a hurry. Like the college frat boy with two girlfriends knowing they wouldn’t be around forever, owning 4,5,8,10 houses in 2006 seemed great so long as you only owned 1 house and 1 mortgage in 2007. Many, indeed MANY people just didn’t get the 2nd part of that memo. And 2008 showed exactly why too much of a good thing was just too damn much of anything.
Ah timing. Wouldn’t it be sweet to have been the person who sold 20 houses in 2007 for 3,4,5 times their actual value and then be able to go back and buy the houses again in 2009 for 1/2 or 1/3 their sale value? Or better yet, wouldn’t it be fantastic to be the bank who held the 20 houses bought in 2006, foreclosed on them in 2007 and then sold them all again at an lower rate in 2008, looking towards the future? 3 times the money for only 1/2 the work. Say what you want about it being unethical business but nobody forced anyone to buy houses they couldn’t afford, lie on their mortgage applications and wait with baited breath for television shows like “Flip This House” to come on every week. Two important personal notes that we should all pay attention to: 1) if sounds too good to be true, it isn’t true and 2) if the only household income you have is from a part time or even full time job at a fast food restaurant, you can’t afford a house with a mortgage and all the associated necessary household payments, no matter who lives with you. And it won’t matter if your lender is a Government Entity — think Fannie Mae or Freddi Mac, both of whom are still around but are wishing it was 2007 again.
As you have probably noticed during 2010, time and timing has been a cruel and harsh mistress indeed to the KangarooMoney.Com Team. Due to the circumstances of the real world, our writing team has been off and on during these first few months and it has been difficult to have the same type of witty conversations and debates that were so ongoing in the Fall of 2009. But times change, people change, jobs change. The good news is with the laptop and web camera technology available today, it’s possible once again to have those rousing roundtable discussions like before. If only it didn’t seem like a bad special effect from an old Superman movie…
Now that Spring is here and the conversations have fully restarted, that television re-run season is starting up again like the old days ( except that “Lost” thing ) and all of the business scrambling of 2008 and 2009 SEEMS to have passed, perhaps some normalcy can return the lives of the KM Team and KM Partners. We CAN say that friends and clients alike have calmed greatly, realizing that the video song that made their eyes instantly go to the top of their foreheads had it so correct before the Bad Times came. The Circle of Life does indeed go round and round, hitting the high points just as surely as hitting the low points. Sometimes, it just seems like the Bad Times will never end, which makes us all forget that we thought the Good Times would never end when we were howling at the Moon. Before there was a VE or VJ Day, there was a Pearl Harbor, and before that there was a 1940, and before that there was a 1929, and before THAT there was the Roaring Twenties. Everything in a circle, all that follows leads. Even 9/11 had a 9/10 and a 9/12. Time can be viewed in many directions.
So while we tip back in our deck chairs, some wearing spring jackets and long pants while others have loose shirts and flip flops, I’ll leave you with the important phrases from two very wise men. The first is a song writer and performing artist, best selling author, restaurateur and all around party type of guy who wrote “No, you never see it comin’, always wonderin’ where it went, only time will tell if it was time well spent; It’s another revelation, celebrating what I should have done, with these souvenirs of my trip around the sun..” That Little Joeys is from Mr. Jimmy Buffetts’ song “Trip Around the Sun” which we recommend for this 2010 Springtime listening in order to shake off a little of that 2008 & 2009 dust so as to be ready for the rest of 2010 in fine form.
Which leads us to the second promised quote. This was from a gentlemen who was also a best seller but not in music or books, per se, but rather in being of the Universe…and understanding it. He helped us to understand the Universe as well and some of his writings, lectures and accepted laws of science still help us to grasp the huge hugeness of the Beyond The Earth there is out there. In fact, we here couldn’t think of anyone more qualified to wrap up this little beat on time then this gentlemen who once said ”The only reason for time is so that everything doesn’t happen at once.“ Which, if you were a banker or a bankee in the last two or three years, you have to appreciate the phrase!
Now, it’s time to get on with the show!
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We at KangarooMoney.Com and KM Partners realize and appreciate you taking your time and effort to read our blog. All of us here at KangarooMoney.Com will continue to be here to help you find the way through the economic minefield that seems to have been created. For this week, and going forward, the typical weekly information will appear up front and the new weekly information will appear down below. Enjoy, learn and earn for the future as we all find our way back from the fear and darkness that has been.
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First and foremost, the KM Team and KM Partners have decided to publish our Disclaimer as a separate posting effective January 2010. Please spend a moment reading that posting to make sure that you understand that the writers of this blog are expressing their opinions only. When you have finished reading the Disclaimer 2010, please spend some extra time going back and keeping us honest by reading some of our previous postings — and verifying the dates! — to see how the KM Team and KM Partners have been doing for the past year. The KangarooMoney.Com and KM Partners all think that you will find our “opinions” are better than some other peoples’ so called “facts”.
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You the reader will find the KangarooMoney.Com weekly comments here on this page with more detailed opinions and reasons following after you hit the <click here to read more> highlight. ( Currently, the KM Team has turned this feature off so that one and all can get a feel for our writing and to read all that is available. In the future at an to-be-announced date, this feature will be turned back on. ) As an educated reader, you know that anyone can tell you a “fact” in a one or two sentence blurb but, the KM Team and KM Partners like to back up our comments with our own views that you can read so that you can understand where we are getting our opinions from.
Below this weeks articles, there is the Updates and Comparisons Section, or the U & C as we call it here in the office. In the U & C, the KM Team will give you some of the latest information concerning some of the previous comments and articles that have been published here as well as comparing the KM Team and KM Partners take on things as opposed to some of our mainstream and blog world counterparts. The Updates and Comparisons section is a nice way to see if the KM Team is staying the true course in the stormy ocean of The Economy.
Down lower on the page, you will find our Market Mover of the Week feature, which highlights a prediction for the one person that the KM Team and KM Partners believe will be the one person most responsible for shaping and driving the USoA markets and / or economy for the upcoming week. Included in this feature is the follow-up on who the MMW was for the week just past as well as pointing out if KangarooMoney.Com was correct in our prediction of who this was and who we determined to be the real Market Mover of the Week.
Going lower, you will find a similar feature called International Impact Incident of the Week. The Triple I section will highlight an international situation either just passed or an expected upcoming event that the KM Team sees as having a major impact on the USoA financial markets. Similar to the MMoW feature in nature, a weekly review will be held each week and you can track how the KM Team and KM Partners preformed in their predictions. With our multitude of International readers, we expect you all to keep us pretty honest in this section.
Still lower you will find our Definitions of the Week. In this section there will be items that explain some of the more technical terms used in our articles of the week. There is now a BlogRoll attachment that will allow you to go over to a complied dictionary for our DoW going all the way back to the beginning of KangarooMoney.Com. Feel free to hop on over to the Dictionary whenever you feel the need to get the straight scoop on what we’re talking about. Or even just to check out some of the financial / political expressions of the day.
At this time, the last feature we would like to mention is one that we hope will help you to see where the KM Team and KM Partners are coming from and where we are trying to go to. Up in the BlogRoll section of the page is a little something called the Stock Docket, which is a link to a list of companies and their stock symbols that have been mentioned here in KangarooMoney.Com. The link will take you to a spreadsheet that list the company names, their stock symbols, the index they are traded on, the week they were mentioned here, and a listing of stock prices that included the Friday just past closing price. The KM Team with a firm lead from the KM Partners also highlight which stocks we supported at the time of mention and those that we did not support. While this is a considerable undertaking on the KangarooMoney.Com Teams’ part, we all feel that this will help to determine how things are going and guide us through the minefield of the USoA Economy. Eventually this feature is planned to be moved into an interior page, so please comment on this feature as much as possible before that happens.
Those of us that started the Stock Docket would love to have been right each and every time in this area but we have to admit that the financial meltdown of 2008 caught us all off guard. We feel bad saying that but we also realize that we are in some pretty good company when it comes to “being caught off guard”. All we’re going to say is that Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers are no longer with us and KangarooMoney.Com is still here. It is safe to say that the current Stock Docket is nowhere near where the original Stock Docket started out. The dramatic dips, dives and drops of the last few years have caused some serious reconfiguring of numbers as well as some re-evaluations of stocks and companies. Because of those facts, there will be a last 2008 and 2009 Stock Docket and then the new 2010 choices, new outlooks and new recommendations / not recommended choices will be put forth by the KM Team and KM Partners and will take effect. Like the real world teaches us, choices are rarely life long and unchangeable. We will leave the last 2008 and 2009 SD up on the BlogRoll just so you can jeer at us in late 2010. Or maybe you will cheer us, as we expect you to. As we said, the last few years have given everyone a left hook from deep center but we didn’t lose the whole pile…did you? Just remember, a share here, a share there and pretty soon it all adds up to real money.
Please remember that the KM Team, KM Partners, KangarooMoney.Com and all of our contributors are not accountants, stock brokers or personal financial advisers, nor are we even Lawyers. Should any one be any of those professions, full disclosure will be made attached to their writing. In the meantime, you need to be sure that you do what YOU want to do. If the KangarooMoney.Com opinions can help you have a better understanding of what has happened, is happening and / or is going to happen in such a way that you decide upon a path to follow, then our blog is serving a purpose. You don’t have to agreed with us and you don’t have to follow what we publish as the end-all-be all of the financial world. All you have to understand is that this blog is ONLY guidance and direction as we believe it. If you or yours uses ONLY our humble writings as your sole guidance and direction in the markets and economy dealings of the USoA to base decisions on, do NOT come crying, or suing, any member of KangarooMoney.Com, the KM Team, or KM Partners for something that has happened that we did not or could not foresee. We certainly hope that this clears up any questions you might have in that regard.
And finally, because we are writing this for everyone to read and enjoy, please don’t be afraid to drop us a comment and let us know how we are doing. This is an ongoing work-in-progress where we hope to bring fresh changes, new site additions and new page features to the blog as we go forward. As the days go by, we won’t forget to tell you how we think we are doing — so don’t YOU forget to tell US how we are doing! Seeing your comments up on the page for all to see is always a rush so be constructive and informative for the community, not selling junk and whining about something deeply personal. Remember, we need to moderate what is written so please be nice and allow us to publish you as you have written you comments. For now, enjoy, learn and earn!
During 2009, the KangarooMoney.Com team determined that some of the attached websites on our BlogRoll were no longer appropriate to be attached here and active. With that in mind, the multiple discussions that took place in the KM Team offices about taking down the outdated websites and adding new websites to the BlogRoll that are more in line with our train of thought, have now come home to bear fruit. Continuing this week and throughout 2010, new additions to the BlogRoll will take place that will give you, the Reader, new opportunities to visit some of the websites that the KM Team and KM Partners visit on a regular basis. Of course, most of these will be financial or news based but not always, so check out the listing to see what new information is available.
This week, the new addition to the KangarooMoney.Com BlogRoll is a very well done and put together website that is chocker block FULL of information and stories but, very, very light on photos, videos and flashy ads — which is very welcome situation. The KM Team is very happy to see a website devoted to content and not flash, especially when it comes to financial information! This week, the new BlogRoll site is wallstreetedition.com so please enjoy this new addition but make sure to useit to your advantage. Just like everything else we try to give you here at KangarooMoney.Com!
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- Part of the problem with the Housing Market is that most people don’t realize what the Housing Market consists of. Hard to believe, it’s more than just…houses. <click here to read more> While the overall problem over the last two years has been high mortgages, low purchasing and too many houses, the additional impact has been felt across the board in any field that has to do with what we understand to be housing. It can be said for example, that the land plots, the existing houses and the new houses that were bought over the last 10 years were just that, things. They weren’t places, they weren’t homes and they weren’t even long held investments. Because of those facts, the items in those houses were not always used and a great deal of them still remain new or like new. So, doesn’t this impact items like furniture, appliances, associated trappings, lawn equipment and all of the little home repair products from places like Home Depot (symbol HD, traded on NYSE, currently trading at its 52 week high after a 6 month run up, recommended at this time) and Lowe’s (symbol LOW, traded on NYSE, currently trading just off its 52 week high after a 6 month run up, recommended at this time) and your local hardware store. More and more, people are not picking up, packing up and moving on down the road. So this means that the moving companies are suffering like no time in the last 30 years as people are forced to remain where they last find themselves living. Which is a pity because people are not trying to live in the towns and cities that they find themselves in now. The towns and cities are also losing as well. Losing tax proceeds as the overvalued homes sink back to normal rates. Losing interested citizens who only want to get out at close to break even from when they came in. Losing ground to keep their town or city on the Fast Track for the next Wal-Mart distribution center (symbol WMT, traded on the NYSE, currently trading near its 52 week high price although the 52 week range is rather narrow at about $9 from the high to the low, not recommended at this time) or to get the show piece high-speed rail stop. Instead, towns are having to re-evaluate their school systems, the road systems and their water systems, floating bonds instead of ideas. Yes, the housing market bubble that popped was and still is, made up of much more than a glut of homes, a lack of mortgages and a faithless buying public who saw dollar signs on the For Sale signs rather than a wonderful place to live and raise a family for 20 or 30 years. Those are the same people who are beating down the doors of Congress in weak attempts to recoup their money from big banks and big mortgage companies. For the sake of the economy and the country, let us hope that people learn to love their current homes, increase their value as they spend time and love on them and stay in one place long enough to return value and respect to the phrase “homeowner”.
- Staying with the housing theme, let’s turn back the clock just a little bit here at the KM offices. Sherman, set the Way Back Machine for Week 37 2008! <click here to read more> During Week 37 2008, the KM Team spent serious efforts savaging the economy as we faced hurricanes (remember Gustov, Hanna, Ike and Josephine…all in a 14 day span), the beginnings of a major strike at Boeing, and simple pleasures like 9% of all homes in USoA covered by mortgages were in default and a climbing unemployment rate of a horrific 6.1%. What we wouldn’t do to see those numbers today! Well, not the hurricanes but the rest of the numbers. At that time we wrote in horror of the potential of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac possibly being “bailed out” by the Treasury Department, whatever that meant. Boy, did we and the American Public ever find out just what “Bail Out” really meant. The critical run of the two housing giants Fannie and Freddie became front page news, put home ownership on the same level as running Enron and made babbling fools out grown Congressmen. Nearly two years ago, the coming storm in September 2008 had given forth thunder like peals but had yet to rain down on us. Now, it feels like Spring Thaw in Fargo ND. But scariest of the scaries was that between them, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac owned approximately 6 BILLON US DOLLARS of the total USoA mortgages in existence at that time — which was one half of all USoA mortgages currently in existence at the time. One half of all mortgages. Think on that for just a moment. Now think on the history of Fannie Mae for a moment, that it was created in 1938 during the height of the Great Depression with the goal being that it would buy and securitize mortgages as a way to insure that backing funds were always available. Fannie Mae was also designed to make more mortgage funds available for low income families of the time, very different than the present day concept of the low income family. Because of changing times, the USoA Government in 1968 converted the existing corporation into a private shareholder owned company, which would remove the monies involved from the Federal Budget. Less than two years later in 1970 the USoA Government created the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation known as Freddie Mac to compete in the secondary mortgage market with Fannie Mae ( symbol FRE, trades on NYSE, no recommended at this time). Prior to August 22, 2008 — does this time frame sound familiar? — the rating service Moody’s had given Feddie Mac an A1 ranking. But, on August 22, 2008 it was revealed that both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had tried to gain Warren Buffett and others as investors which caused Moody’s to cut their rating down to Baa3, which is essentially what we all call Junk Bond Status. We bring this up because somewhere between 1968 and 2008, those 20 short history filled years, the American Public bastardized the concept of “owning your own home” into “home ownership”. The two are not the same despite how it reads to the eye. When you “own your own home” you are committing to many, many years of living in, adding to, personalizing, showplacing a building that before you and your family moved in was a lifeless, soulless, historyless building but at the end of 10, 20, 30 years was a place of family joy filled with happy memories tuned especially to the owner family. But to be in a “home ownership” mode, you were a business, a corporation that has many buildings in it but no personal attachment. In the interest of the public and the bottom line, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac became corrupted in the bottom purpose and sold out to the bottom line. Was it the USoA Government’s fault? Was it Fannie Mae and Freddie Macs’ greedy managers fault? Was it purchasers of the mortgages fault? The answer is no, no and no. Once again, it is the American publics’ fault, not for allowing this situation to happen but for forcing this situation to happen. The American public’s demand for personal profit without future planning forced this situation to spiral so far out local and eventually national control that the “housing crisis” didn’t just happen, it still remains today as this is written. It also didn’t help that the American Public bailed quickly at the local level as soon as it looked like people with multiple buildings / mortgages might be held accountable for their actions. The result of this selfishness? Not only the “housing crisis” but also the ”banking crisis” as well as the banks got caught stuck with all that bad unmovable debt. The lesson here is clear for all to see. But, that lesson was clear in 2008 and well before then as well. Now the lesson should be, make a plan for the future and learn the history of the past before you make a move in the present.
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Updates and Comparisons:
Week 01 2009:The KangerooMoney.Com Team and the KM Partners loudly protested the coming Socialism-ization of the USoA that drew the vocal ire of many reading Democrats and some leaning Republicans as being too over the top and too critical of the incoming administration. We ranted about the upcoming additional bailouts for companies that the KM Team felt should have been closed and shut down because their business plans led to failure. And we lamented the “Audacity of Hope” attitude of some people who want their past mistakes forgiven and their “homes” saved for them, even if they can’t afford them for 50 to 75 years of mortgages”. We were harsh. We were critical. We were blunt. So the KM Team and KM partners have a question for you — are you better off now than you were in January 2009? Let us know — make a comment, drop a line, argue the point. ( But we think you’ll agree with us, not argue. )
Week 02 2009: In an additional article from this week, the KangarooMoney.Com Team spent time talking about a very good book written by Thomas Fleming, “The Perils of Peace” which several of us had just finished reading. In reviewing that article, we were drawn to the comment made in a letter by the then Superintendent of Finance (a modern day Treasury Secretary) Robert Morris who said “We are likely to become an unruly, ungovernable nation…the confidence of the people being destroyed, the credit of the government lost, its vigour is of course gone, and this unhappily at a time when exertion is most wanted.” As we stated then, the very scary thing about these comments is that they were written in 1781!! From that first week in 2009 until now, the feelings of how things are being turned into hopeLESSness out of the great hopeFULness that November 2008 and January 2009 promised. We deeply hope the high water mark of this Administration is still to come.
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Market Mover of the Week 14 2010: As much as it pains the KangarooMoney.Com Team to pig pile on top of the national media, we can’t help but all agree that we have no choice except to acknowledge that Tiger Woods will be the MMoW for Week 14 2010. When he tees it up play in the 2010 Masters at Augusta GA, his return will be more than just to golf as a sport. He will also be returning as spokesman for several companies, testing the absolute limits of how far a great athlete can fall before it is deemed too far both for the public and for the businesses behind him. No matter where Tiger finishes in the field, just his playing will raise the viewership for the match as well as the ad rates for the weekend. This is serious test of the publics’ gag reflex and what they will buy when it is tied to a fallen hero. Thus, the MMoW for Week 14 2010 many need several mulligans to reclaim his appeal, and not on the course.
Market Mover of the Week 13 2010: Last week the KM Team touted the recent election of the former Prime Minister of Iraq, Mr. Ayad Allawi and the potential impact of the business community not only in the Middle East but also in the world wide markets as well. While it appears that the new Iraq government led by Mr. Allawi will not be seated for some time as the government tries to form up, the excellent news is that it appears the violence that so often takes place before, during and after a Middle East country has an election is not going on this time. Mr. Allawi will have done a great deal if nothing continues to happen in the country due to his election and leadership. The KM Team is happy to see this trend andfeel that there may be a more serious corner being turned for the business world at large because of this trend.
International Impact Incident of the Week: While technically not an International Incident as the KangarooMoney.Com Team has written about over the time of this blog, we do feel that this weeks Triple I is Easter. The celebration of Easter impacts so many people, so many countries and so many businesses around the world that the celebration can not be down played as to the impact on the worldwide business community. Because of that, the Triple I of Week 14 will be the wide impact, disruption and addition to business as we stride into the week ahead.
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DEFINITIONS:
Government Entity: The common term used to describe a local, state or federal department, group or organization that is wholly inside and under control of the associated government. Typically, this type of department, group or organization has no elected officals within it or directly running it but instead answers to a higher organization on a side “dotted line” authorization chart. Control and budgeting of this type of organization is fully funded by tax money but does not come under direct taxpayer control.
Flip This House: An American televison show currently on the A&E Network that shows how selected casts of people buy and rehab houses in different USoA city markets for profit above the cost of originally buying the house. The casts on the show buy homes, add what is necessary to make the house resalable, such as new floors, new windows and / or new appliances, then market and sell the homes. The goal on the show is exactly the same as in non-television world, to sell the house for more money than the original purchase price plus the cost of any upgrades that were performed. Considered to be a “reality series” type of televison show, nothing is known to be scripted on the show.
Way Back Machine: Originally a short feature on the old “Rocky and Bullwinkle” cartoon show, Mr. Peabody ( a super intelligent dog with glasses ) and his boy Sherman ( a not so intelligent pre-teen boy with glasses ) made use of a machine built by Mr. Peabody that they referred to as the WABAC machine that was actually a time travel machine. In each short, Mr. Peabody and Sherman would travel backwards to some famous event in history andhave some handinmakingthe event happened as it they knew but not necessarily how it was going to happen without their “interference”. The short always started with Mr. Peabody asking for Sherman to “Set the WABAC Machine for…” and would always end with some pointed and terrible pun on what just happened.
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( This weeks quote comes from a man who used to need no introduction, literally. Unfortunately for us all, he died in his sleep on April 18, 1955 after refusing surgery to save his life, saying “I want to go when I want. It is tasteless to prolong life artificially. I have done my share, it is time to go. I will do it elegantly.” This was a man who was a human quote machine for his whole 76 years! But more than that, he was a man that most people from 1900 until today and most likely in the centuries to come was thought of as one of the greatest scientists and thinkers of Mankind. His theories and science is still being proven today, 55 years after his death. This weeks quote belongs to Albert Einstein. Whom we are quite sure is sticking his tongue out at us all at beyond light speed right this second. After all, only he could do that, right? )
Once again, the KM Team and KM Partners want to thank you all for reading us and for keeping those comments coming in. We do read every one of them and try to respond / answer as many of them as possible. While we don’t always like being “tricked” by some of you posters, suffice it say that Super-Internet Dan is on the job catching your tricks and quirks from your writing and he is preparing a reverse web bomb back at you right this very minute! In the meantime, stay in touch and keep smiling. As always, enjoy, learn and earn! The KM Team and KM Partners.
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