May 04

Week 18 2008

Tag: Week 18 2008Ray Pendergast @ 5:46 pm

( Please see Kangaroo Money’s Disclaimer below. )

You will find our weekly comments here on this page with fuller opinions and reasons following after you hit the (click here to read more) highlights.  ( Currently, we have turned this feature off so that one and all can get a feel for our openings and read all that is available.  In the future, this feature will be turned on. )  Anyone can tell you a one or two sentence blurb but we like to back up our comments with our views so that you can understand where we are coming from.  Down lower, there is a feature called Updates and Comparisons.  In the U & C section, the KM Team will give you some of the latest information concerning some of the previous comments published here as well as comparing the KM Team take on things to others of our counterparts.  The U & C section will be a nice way to see if the KM Team is staying the true course in the ocean of Economy.  Below that you will find our Person of the Week feature, representing the one person that the KM Team thought was most responsible for moving the USA markets and / or economy last week.  And finally there is the KM Team Definitions of the Week.  These are items that will be complied into a term dictionary at a later date but that will help you now as we explain some of the power phrases of the week just passed.

During Week 18 2008, a Special Notice from the Kangaroo Money Team was posted in response to what was then an upcoming event, the upcoming Fed decision on the United States prime interest rates.  The KM Team going forward will on such special occasions post Special Notices.  In this posting, the KM Team puts forward a Pro/Con response to the Special Notice just past and the actions of the Fed to explain ourselves and the opinion split even we here at Kangaroo Money had.  All views tend to give a good look at a situation!
 
Because we are writing for everyone, don’t be afraid to let us know how we are doing.  This is an ongoing work-in-progress where we hope to bring fresh changes, new site additions and page features as we go forward.  As the days go by, we won’t forget to tell you we think we are doing — so don’t YOU forget to tell US how you think we are doing!  For now, Enjoy, Learn and Earn!
 
Kangaroo Money Team
  1. You may be surprised to realize that there are only 168 hours per week, in any week, always.  Really.  If you could find the time in one week, on a regular basis, to earn a solid return in money for your foreknowledge in investments and the Markets, would you take the time?  How about if it was 1 hour a week?  Would you do it?  Come with Kangaroo Money while we find you that time.  ( click here to read more )  Let’s begin by breaking down where your 168 hours a week probably goes.  If you get 8 hours of sleep per night, 7×8=56, 168-56=112 hours left; if you work full time, 5×8=40, 112-40=72 hours left; if you have an average commute to work of 30 minutes one way, 5x.5×2=5, 72-5=67 hours left; if you take an average of 30 minutes to get ready for work in the morning, 5x.5=2.5, 67-2.5=64.5 hours left; if you take an average of 30 minutes to get ready for bed at night, 7x.5=3.5, 64.5-3.5=61 hours left; if you watch an average of 3 hours of television per day, 7×3=21, 61-21=40 hours left; if you take an average of 30 minutes per meal, 3x.5=1.5×7=10.5, 40-10.5=29.5 hours left in your week.  These are the averages that the typical working American spends per week doing “normal” activities.  The bulk of that 29 1/2 hours that you have left would probably end up on your weekend, where you would be working in the yard, fixing up the house, playing with your children or indulging in other leisure activities.  Wouldn’t it be great if you could take just 1 of those free 29 hours ( KM will give you the other 1/2 hour as a freebie ) and head off to the local library to scan all of the material that has been assembled using your tax dollars and just immerse yourself in the Wall Street Journal, Money Magazine, Barron’s, Investor’s Daily, or newspapers with a broader worldwide perspective like the London Times or the New York Times, or even just to pause over the weekly news magazines?  The Internet might be a great place to visit for a quick snack or a visual 2 minute story but nothing beats holding something in your hands and digesting the whole thing while your mind works through the many angles it might involve.  Too much to chew on in one trip?  Newspapers and magazines have the luxury of still being around the next time you want to read them — no on-line searching necessary!  One hour a week that you can spend broadening your knowledge about a news event, a company, a commodity or a financial situation that could affect you, your family and / or your business.  Less tiring than the gym and more satisfying around the water cooler at work the next day as you show your new found knowledge.  More enabling to get your mind flowing towards a hot, new, unknown company or process, unknown except for you!, that will make the stockholders rich over the next few years.  Turn the trip into a family event and help broaden your little ones horizons as well.  What better way to get children to read than to show them that Mommy & Daddy do it too!  And the best part is, you not only didn’t miss any television but you still have 28 1/2 hours left to enjoy!  One hour a week — it’s all that the Kangaroo Money Team asks you to do for a better financial future. 
  2. Growing pains Toyota Motor…Toyota is experiencing the growing pains that all expanding companies feel.  It’s a double edged sword, with increasing production, the harder it is to maintain per unit quality.  Some of the processes and procedures that worked in the past production are no longer adequate.  As a result, new procedures must be developed.  What kind of impacts is this having on Toyota Motor? ( click here to read more ) Over the past year Toyota ( TM, traded on the NYSE ) has seen it’s stock price decrease from a high of 127.97 on 7/3/07 to a close on 5/2/08 of 104.94.  Not to say that Toyota is a bad investment.  But, if you were a short-term trader, then you lost money.  And you should all know by now how the KM Team feels about short term trading.  A good company like Toyota, staidly going up based on the five-year chart, and yet you lost money and the stock is trending down.  Why?  Rapid expansion.  Let’s be clear that Toyota is a great company that by it’s own admission has stumbled lately.  They will give the current number 1 company General Motors ( GM, traded on the NYSE ) a run for their money.  The question is can GM adapt the way Toyota has since they started selling cars in the United States 50 years ago?  The KM Team is saying that every company must manage expansion as closely as they manage their production line.  In January 2008, Toyota out sold Ford ( F, traded on the NYSE; a stock owned by KM Partners ), to become the number 2 automaker.  When Mr. Katsuaki Watanabe visited the 2008 Detroit Auto Show ( NYT 01/15/08 President & CEO Watanabe Comments on Toyota Quality )  he used this very public forum to convey a passionate plea to his employees to take personal responsibility for the quality of Toyota cars and trucks.“Each individual must carry the responsibility” for ensuring quality, from design to manufacturing and selling cars and trucks, Mr. Watanabe said. He went on to say that the dictate was “something that’s really shameful for us to share with you.”  There has been a series of recalls in the United States and Japan over the last two years totaling in the millions of cars.  Mr. Watanabe also instituted a “back-to-basics” campaign, stating “I told them to reaffirm once again whether they did the proper job.” Further, he stated “When Toyota was a small company, we could expressly communicate” any quality improvements that were required, he said. “But now that Toyota is so big, we’ve realized that we have not adequately communicated.”  The 46 year old Mr. Watanabe became President and CEO of Toyota Motor in June of 2005 after spending years in the Production Control section of the company. 
  3. The new Farm Bill is being debated in Washington DC in the Senate and after a 6 hour meeting that stretched from Thursday night into Friday morning, it is being reported that the new 2008 Farm Bill is complete except for some minor details.  ( see information and links here www.brownfieldnetwork.com )  KM believes that this new subsidy bill should be defeated.  In fact, KM believes that farm subsides should be done away with altogether in the United States.  Why would we do that?  (click here to read more)  Putting aside the fact that most people believe, and for the most part correctly, that “the” Farm Bill that is passed by the Senate on a (fairly) yearly basis pays farmers not to grow produce, to be sure this is part of but not the whole point of, the Farm Bill.  The other issue with the average American idea of the Farm Bill is that it is for individual farmers.  The truth be told, most of the agriculture that takes place in the United States today is done under the umbrellas of several major corporations.  While lip service is paid heavily towards supporting the small family style farms that we all believe make up the middle third of America, the companies like ConAgra ( CAG, traded on NYSE ), Hormel Food Group ( HRL, traded on NYSE) , General Mills Inc. ( GIS, traded on NYSE ) and Kellogg Co. ( K, traded on NYSE ) just to name a few that make up the agriculture sector of American stock markets, are the players making the money and decisions as to what is grown this year for profit and what is not being grown at all.  A quick search of the brand names that belong to these four companies will turn up a wide number of products in your kitchen.  The truth is that these companies and others like them can control the future of food in the world much like Standard Oil once controlled the oil, kerosene and gasoline future of the world.  The United States does NOT control its oil and gas destiny any more.  Other countries do.  And those countries do not much like us most of the time.  Trading our farming and food producing skills and bounties for the energy that we need ( not crave and waste, but NEED ) is the smartest thing America can do going forward.  The United States could start a Food-For-Oil program far better than ever seen before.  And it would not have to stop there.  Food-For-”Pick a product” programs that would help the world instead of destroying it.  With a possible Rice Cartel ala OPEC looming on the horizon, then paying for not growing food is rather silly in a world that is starving and-dying.  It’s kind of like paying for not working.  Rather silly to those of us who are doing both to those who do neither. It is also a great place to learn and earn — learn who grows what where and why then look at the associated stocks that will earn you money.  Better for the country as a whole too, as farming can mean “going green” in more ways than just growing plants.
  4. This week saw the company Take-Two Interactive Software ( TTWO, traded on the NASDAQ )  release through its subsidiary Rockstar Studio the latest chapter of its brutal and satirical video game, “Grand Theft Auto IV” to stunning results.  Reminiscent to  the “HALO 3″ game release in the fall of 2007, the fan fare and build up to release was similar to a blockbuster movie opening or the pending sale of superstar concert tickets.  The result to publicly traded companies also was similar to the star power of those movies or concerts.  ( click here to read more )  Like its previous versions, this latest update is drawing fire from many groups for its violence and character depictions but, the result of this weeks release was a 1 point gain in Take-Twos’ stock price, up to $26.20 per share, as well as making Take-Two that much harder for its unwelcomed suitor Electronic Arts, Inc. ( ERTS traded on the NASDAQ ) to acquire the company.  Also, the impact to retail vendors such as Best Buy ( BBY on the NYSE ) and GameStop ( GME on the NYSE ) was very noticeable and positive.  The games’ delayed release from last fall helped to increase upgrade sales to the game consoles it is played on possible as the youth gaming market waited for the release date.  The game may not win any fan raves from Police Departments or MADD Chapters across the country but the game’s sales’ dollar figures and the surrounding impacted companies handling the game will benefit through the summer months.  At this time, GTA IV would seem to be the only blockbuster video game to come to sale for the remainder of 2008.  The lack of buzz on other sequels or outright new games would seem to show that this market will be suffering a slow downward slide through the rest of the year.  The KM Team recommends putting the associated stocks on your watch lists and then tracking the trends of those companies, especially the retailers like Best Buy, GameStop and the other big box stores.  At this time, until the youth gamers start to make noise about some other hot new graphically superior game, the KM Team will only be watching these stocks.
  5. Nobody cares about their inventory until they run out of it…A common flaw with a great number of manufacturing companies is that for all their skills at what they produce for sale, they can’t seem to manage their in house inventory.  In house inventory includes all of the associated raw stock materials and components necessary to fabricate a complete finished and salable unit.  Why is this a concern to you, the Kangaroo Money reader? (click here to read more)  The lack of accurate inventory and it’s control in the manufacturing plant, impacts the company as an investment to you the stock holding public.  Companies that have their inventory under control and well managed, both by what is already in house / in stock and what is scheduled to come in house, are a better investment by far than those that do not have the same control and procedures in place.  The KM Team have worked on and have managed production lines, unit cells and warehouses for many years.  We have seen the implementation of a cost saving inventory control plan and the myriad benefits in available cash on hand as a result.  But unfortunately, the downfall is usually spread among many areas of the manufacturing facility not following a raw materials and sub-assembly build production and inventory flow that works for all the components of the finished unit.  Too many times, an individuals’ fear of not having product on hand when they determine they need it will lead to materials being stockpiled in many links of the assembly chain instead of allowing materials to be delivered when needed.  As the definition of “Just In Time”, or JIT, states — see below under Definitions — a “strategy to improve the return on investment of a business by reducing in-process inventory and its associated carrying costs”, a leaner manufacturing flow will lead to less money being tied up in idle on hand parts in your warehouse.  Great!  The solution seems at hand for a well managed company to have tighter inventory and thus more money on hand to move forward and expand into its industry.  But, here is the problem with JIT Manufacturing — you must have a solid forecast of your future sale orders that are not going to drastically change.  Still, the company that today has more cash on hand and less idle cash already tied up in sitting inventory in its warehouse, is going to be a company worth looking at and worth owning its stock.  A solid educational group to check out to help you in whatever inventory situation you might find yourself or your company can be found at the Association of Operations Management, or APICS as it is known, website located at www.apics.org.  ( NOTE: Members of the KM Team are members of the APICS organization and want to state so.)  The problem of accurate inventory and its impact on a business is large and complex however, so it can not be easily explained in just one article.  Look for this subject to continue in later articles by the Kangaroo Money Team.  And don’t be fooled by a company that you might review as having good inventory control when in reality they have NO inventory to control.
  6. The KM Team would like to shout the praises of companies like IBM ( IBM, traded on the NYSE ) who announced this week that not only would they be raising their quarterly dividend by 25% to 50 cents per share to shareholders of record as of May 9th, 2008, the 13th consecutive year of dividend increases, not only did they also announce a share buy back program to take place this year with a value of $12 Billion ( with a “B” ), but they also announced that there would be an increase in pension payments for workers who retired prior to 1997, affecting about 42,000 of their previous loyal employees.  ( click here to read more )  In the eyes of the Kangaroo Money Team, this is a triple play worthy of note and also worthy of our respect.  While the stock buyback will increase the value of the publicly held stock by removing stock from trading and thus making the remaining stock more valuable, it also shows that IBM is not rushing to spend their hard earned cash on ventures that could show little or no return in the future.  IBM is taking a reasoned and forward looking approach to the money they have on hand.  But the buyback ranks 3 out 3 to the KM Team.  The adding to the pension payments of their previous employees, all 42,000 of them that will be impacted, shows that IBM has not forgotten those who helped to get them where they are today.  Indeed, it would seem anything but that, as they add about 10% per month to their pension payouts and thus reward and recognize the hard work of the people who stayed with the company during the dire 1990’s to make IBM what it is today.  But the pension payments rank only 2 out the 3 to the KM Team.  No, number one of this weeks good news from the International Business Machine Corp. would be that dividend that is coming.  In today’s business world here in the United States, companies are finding their loan sources drying up and they must find cash to expand and update their facilities where ever they can.  More and more that means that they are cutting or doing away with their dividend payments to their stockholders.  Not cutting salaries or cutting manufacturing waste but cutting the money that goes to the people who believe in them enough to buy and own their stock.  In a country where a savings account will net you 1 or 2% annual interest, a good dividend paying company is better than a good local Co-Op Bank.  The dividends can be sent to your account as straight cash or can be used to purchase more stock in the paying company. Either way is a return of faith to the stockholder by the company, a way of thanking you to continue believing in the way the company is doing business.  Kangaroo Money has noticed a very high number of companies, especially in the Financial Sectors, that are cutting or eliminating their dividends, adding to the grumbling that was already pretty high about their methods of business.  KM hasn’t noticed a lot of CEO or Presidents of those companies getting THEIR payments cut via salaries perk eliminations.  We are all wondering why.  But IBM is certainly bucking the trend with their 50 cent cookie and glass of milk.  While Kangaroo Money Partners don’t own IBM shares — yet — we are watching closely to see if the company is at the forefront of a trend or simply out in front of everybody else.
  7. The shape of things to come…A trend seemed to start about five years ago or so.  It has to do with companies doing away with their traditional pension plans and switching over to 401K plans.  ( click here to read more )  If you have the option, and we believe that you eventually won’t, compare the offered plans.  Take into account your health, your familys’ health history and try to estimate your life expectancy as if you were comparing life insurance policies.  Make sure to take into account your expected employment expectancy as well!  You don’t want to run out of money in your retirement years, which are getting longer and more active than ever before, so be honest and realistic with yourself.  From the Associated Press ( www.ap.org ) April 19th, 2008 — “When Boeing Co. (BA, on the NYSE–KMT) and its unions representing machinists and aerospace engineers sit down to negotiate a new contract later this year, the airplane maker plans to discuss about changes to retirement benefits for new hires.  Boeing spokesman Tim Healy said in an interview that the company would propose to offer new union hires 401(k)-style plans, and not the more traditional pension plans.”  From the National Public Radio ( www.npr.org ) April 19th, 2008 — “Fidelity Investments Drops Company Pension Plan.  Companies small and large have been phasing out their pension plans and pushing their employees into 401-K plans.  The mutual fund giant Fidelity Investments is following the trend with its own workers.”  At this time, it is important to note that KM Partners have self-directed stock plans as part of our overall retirement plan.
  8. You have read Kangaroo Money talk about sectors, comparing one company to another within its industry or sector, and watching the trends in a sector as a whole that might drag down a well performing company just because of the industry or sector that it is in.  A sector is an area in market trading that groups like companies together.  ( click here to read more )For example, the Oil & Gas Sector would include companies like Shell, BP and Exxon-Mobil.  One of the sectors that the KM Team has been watching with great interest is the Metals and Mining sector with a further breakdown to Industrial Metals and Minerals.  Even deeper into this is what we have been focusing on — coal mining.  Whereas this particular field seems to only gather attention when something breaks and people die, the trends on coal has been moving upward now for quite awhile.  Two of our review companies — Arch Coal ( ACI, traded on the NYSE ) 52 week low of 27.76; 52 week high of 62.99; May 2nd, 2008 close of 59.25 and Foundation Coal Holdings ( FCL, traded on the NYSE ) 52 week low of 30.87; 52 week high of 66.69; May 2nd 2008 close of 59.72 — has held our attention during their climbs.  Both companies show steady upward climbs over the last 8-9 months ( although FCL has been steadier than ACI ) and indications are that this upward movement should continue.  This should also hold true for other coal companies that are out there as well.  While it is true that most of the coal is going overseas, especially to China, there is no reason why that coal could not stay here in this country to make the same type of products that China seems to be making so much cheaper than we used to, like steel for example.  It is also worth noting that our grandparents and great-grandparents had no problem living and heating with coal powering their homes and heating their lives.  Yes, it was much dirtier to store, handle and burn back then but that is true about almost everything prior to today.  Advancements in processing, burn control and remains handling were ongoing just a short time ago and would continue should the need rise to use this valuable commodity that lay below a good part of North America.  If there have been major improvements in getting coal out of the ground for use, and there have been, then there is no reason to believe that major improvements is using, filtering and disposing of coal could not be made by United States companies and for considerable profits.  As the Kangaroo Money Team believe strongly in long plays, the American Coal Industry should come in with a double win.  For the short term, coal looks to be a success as it is used more and more by industry even if right now that industry is overseas.  For the long term, coal looks to be a success if American companies approach its use and disposal like it has for some many other products.  While our great-grandparents might shake their heads at the suggestion of going back to coal with all of its many problems in using it, we could also point out to them that the days of rivers catching fire due to excessive kerosene spillage and railroad tracks going up in flames due to leaky barrels of raw gasoline being shipped across Pennsylvania are long gone.  American know-how should do for coal what we have done for other fuels.  The KM Partners have yet to own a coal mining company but we are reviewing with great interest to that end.  And you Kangaroos should look at this sector now before everyone else does.

Updates and Comparisons: 

In Week 17, Kangaroo Moneys’ direct quote was “Financial houses have been losing Billions of dollars because it now appears that some of the banks and brokerage houses were not all that forth coming about their losses.“  In Beginnings, Kangaroo Moneys’ direct quote was “To top it off the sub-prime mortgages that people never would have got in the first place if the companies involved didn’t, you know, overlook the little things like, oh, check incomes and actually look at the documentation provided.“  At the time, those statements seemed bold, and perhaps, a little over the top to some of our readers.  Well, a bit of vindication to Kangaroo Money, thank you very much.  In the Wednesday, April 30th, 2008 Wall Street Journal ( www.wsj.com ) in a banner topped article on page B1 titled “Countrywide Loss Focuses Attention on Underwriting” written by Glenn R. Simpson and James R Hagerty, those gentlemen write about a program called “Fast and Easy”.  To quote:”Fast and Easy borrowers aren’t required to produce pay stubs or tax forms to substantiate their claimed earnings.  In many cases, Countrywide didn’t even require loan officers to verify employment…”  Further, “That left the program vulnerable to abuse by Countrywide loan officers and outside mortgage brokers seeking loans for customers who might have turned away…”  Kangaroo Money’s statements WERE bold but, as it turns out, they were not over the top but rather muted.  And you read it HERE first.

In Week 16, KM said, “Rely on the strength of your Brand -OR- Dance with the Girl that brung ya” and “Not even two years ago, when you said Starbucks you thought coffee.  What happened?  They got away from their time proven business model and rapidly lost their strength of brand.”  In the Thursday, May 1st, 2008 Wall Street Journal, on page B3, an article written by Janet Adamy entitled “Starbucks Slows U.S. Growth Plans as Sales Weaken”.  The article notes that Starbucks plans to reduce the number of stores it had planned to build in the United States over the next three years.  This on the information of net income falling 28% in the chains 2nd quarter.

In Week 16, KM said, “As the economy begins to turn further downward, coasting at a lower level than even in 2007, the Have-Nots will begin to grow in much greater numbers than the Haves.  This will lead to the Have-Nots to once again start taking what they want instead of even trying to work for it.”  To show that the KM Team also watches television where necessary, at NBC on the tube and ( www.msnbc.msn.com) on the web, there was the story of the delivery service with the mid-sized box truck whose gas tank had been power drilled out and drained of $150 of gas (current value 5/3/08) not once but TWICE in the past month.  Gas cap locks didn’t do a damn thing.  Also, on the front page of the May 1st, 2008 Wall Street Journal was the story by Sarah McBride of all of the large, 250 pounds and up, bronze and / or copper statues that are disappearing by theft from public display in Brea, CA.  But that kind of thieving isn’t stopping at what can only be termed “interesting pieces of art” as thieves around the country are stealing exposed pipes in construction projects, wiring where it can be found and, of all things, manhole covers from where they are found.  Again, Kangaroo Money warned you that this was coming.

In Week 16, KM said “That should mean a new Golden Age for television and the Networks as a whole as we see a new “have to see TV” era.” as we commented on the expected weak movie season and the expected down turn in travel and vacations.  In the Wednesday, April 30th, 2008 Wall Street Journal, on page B6, an article by Shira Ovide notes that CBS had a net rise in its first quarter of 14%, led by its TV unit.  While the numbers reflect one time payments and some lower production costs thanks to the Hollywood writers’ strike, this increase did allow for a dividend increase and does point out that the television unit of CBS is expecting ad sales to be “very healthy”.  While the Summer Movie season seems to promise big dazzling blockbusters that even has the Kangaroo Money Team excited about, we still feel that the money to be spent AT the theaters may not be there as the unemployment rates continue to climb.  The CBS numbers bear out the KM Team so far.

 II

DEFINITIONS:

Big Box Store: a store belonging to a national chain that is large in floor space and in items for sale; a chain store that is typically not located in a downtown setting because of size or products; see Wal-Mart, Target, K-Mart as a typical “big box store”

Commodity: things of value that are made in large quantities by a large number of different producers; a commodity may be worked mineral such as gold or silver, an agricultural item such as corn or soybeans, or animals to be used for food or oil, gas and coal products;

Sector: as used this week — a particular grouping of industry or business; a grouping of like businesses that can be compared against each other for financial or economic reasons to determine perceived value and worth

JIT Inventory: a business inventory system put in place to improve the overall return on investment by reducing the on-hand inventory and its associated carry costs; the fast communication that in process inventory to manufacture items has been used results in moving warehouse based inventory to immediate use; a method to track and forecast the use of materials so as to allow a plan to be put in place to have inventory on hand only when needed

Return on Investment: the ratio of money gained or lost on an investment as it relates to the amount of money that was invested; a figure used to forecast the value of a method of business operation as it pertains to investing in new equipment, personnel, building space, ect., usually with a forward looking view;
 

Market Mover of the Week: The KM Team pick of the Dalai Lama was in the running all week long but could never make the move to the front of the pack, getting to the outside and ending up no higher than third in any of the KM Team weekly polls.  The MMW for Week 18 2008 goes to a pair of older gents who seem to know a thing or two about “The Market” — Warren Buffett and Kirk Kerkorian.  Master Buffett helped to put together a huge deal between Mars and Wrigley, which could fuel a larger merger situation not just in the food areas but in many other industries as well.  Master Kerkorian decided that he had driven a Ford lately and through his Tracinda Corp. announced that not only had that company amassed 100 million shares of Ford but that it was looking for at least 20 million more shares — at a hefty premium of $8.50 a share.  The KM Team and KM Partners owns Ford shares and is enjoying the ride after buying that grand old brand at bottom prices of under $6 per share just weeks ago.  The markets enjoyed a nice bounce from these two announcements and was able to fly through the Fed cut and bad financial sector reports because of Buffett & Kerkorian.  And THAT is what makes a Market Mover of the Week!  We’re off to see the Wizard…but let’s take the ol’ Ford down the road, okay?

Week 19 2008 Market Mover of the Week?    With the upcoming fallout of the, at the moment, failed buyout of Yahoo by Microsoft expected to spread through the US markets and then move worldwide, the Kangaroo Money Team expects Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, to be the MMW.  With explanations, examinations and exploitations all upcoming this week from Microsoft, Yahoo and a thousand experts, the KM Team expects only Mr. Ballmer to have reasonable calm and comments on the situation, now and for the future.  Test our opinion next week!
 
SPECIAL NOTICE WEEK 18 2008 POSITIONS:

The Pro-Rate Cut View:  The United States Government and the Fed Board agreed that all was still not well in the US markets and that further “poking” by the Fed was necessary to keep the economy as a whole moving ever forward.  The fact that inflation is beating down the door and that the mortgage / lending crisis is far from over in their view only added to the need of the rate cut.  This showed itself to be a good move as the US Dollar abroad strengthen and oil prices, measured in US Dollars, dropped across the markets.  At this time, to have come to the table and to have done nothing would have signaled to far too many people and companies that as far as the government was concerned, you were on your own.  With poll ratings already the worst ever and a weak, weak, weak Lame Duck year passing by, President Bush would have suffered mightily as a do-nothing even when people should realize that economy was of their own making not his.  The Fed Board stepped in and like a reluctant Father, added a little more to the allowance short teenagers’ pocket but at the same time made it clear that this was the last time it was going to happen…probably….maybe.  Anyways, the rate cut kept the house of cards from collapsing and the markets, the companies and banks, and the economy as a whole was able to keep on keeping on, even moving upward to numbers not seen since January 2008.  Well done!

The Con-Rate Cut View:  The United States Government and the Fed Board once again agreed that image is everything and reality is not by “poking” the US markets and the economy as a whole and granting a .25% rate cut on the prime rate.  This cut shows that the people in charge are more interested in shoring up a situation that should have been allowed to collapse of its own bad business traits than to be propped up and maintained like some rotting old mansion by a bayou riverside.  While the US Dollar is showing signs of strengthening, it is difficult to believe that this smallish rate cut had much to do with it.  Likewise, is the decrease in worldwide oil prices that occurred, which seemed to be momentary at best. Much like people who have spent far too much without thinking about the consequences of all that borrowing to do it, the rate cut is only stretching out and prolonging the inevitable collapse of a housing market that is over built, under sold and over borrowed against.  Instead of allowing normal free market situations to prevail and right the still sinking ship of housing and real estate markets, this rate cut props those situations up for a while longer.  The cut did nothing to stem inflation or to trickle down and help the people who need to find bags of money in their backyards to keep their homes.  Like a doddering old Father and a tottering old Uncle, the US Government and the Fed Board has handed out money again without thinking about the long term consequences. 

Kangaroo Money is happy to see that we not only have attracted a worldwide readership (Poland, Sweden and Australia, oh my!, to name a few international readers) but that you are taking the time to read and digest our writings.   What better reason for us to keep doing what we enjoy doing?  Please keep those comments coming in because we do appreciate hearing from you.  As the days go by, we won’t forget to tell you what we think we are doing — so don’t YOU forget to tell US how you think we are doing!  For now, enjoy, learn and earn.    R, S & D…

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